Manufacturing in the New York Region Grew Modestly in November
The latest data released by the Federal Reserve on November 15th, 2023 finds manufacturing activity grew modestly in the New York region in November, even as optimism fell generally.
The Empire State Manufacturing Survey is a monthly report that tracks the business activity of manufacturing firms in New York State. The survey provides indicators of current and future conditions, such as general business conditions, new orders, shipments, prices, employment, and capital spending. The survey is conducted by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York and the results are released around the middle of each month.
Here are some key takeaways from the latest survey, released on November 15, 2023:
• Business activity grew modestly. The general business conditions index rose fourteen points to 9.1, its highest reading since April. This means that more firms reported improved conditions than worsened conditions in November.
• New orders continued to fall slightly, while shipments picked up. The new orders index held steady at -4.9, indicating a small decline in orders for the second consecutive month. The shipments index rose eight points to 10.0, indicating an increase in shipments.
• Unfilled orders declined significantly, and delivery times shortened. The unfilled orders index fell four points to -23.2, a sign that unfilled orders continued to fall significantly. The delivery times index was little changed at -6.1, suggesting that delivery times continued to shorten.
• Inventories increased for the first time in several months. The inventories index rose eleven points to 9.1, indicating that inventories moved higher for the first time in several months.
• Labor market indicators pointed to a small decline in employment and the average workweek. The index for number of employees fell eight points to -4.5, and the average workweek index fell six points to -3.8, reflecting a small decline in employment levels and hours worked.
• The pace of input price increases moderated just slightly, while selling price increases were little changed. The prices paid index edged down three points to 22.2, pointing to a slight moderation in input price increases, while the prices received index held steady at 11.1, a sign that selling price increases remained modest.
• There was a steep drop in the outlook, with firms no longer expecting conditions to improve over the next six months. The index for future business conditions plunged twenty-four points to -0.9, its lowest level in nearly a year. Only 29 percent of respondents expect conditions to be better in six months. New orders and shipments are expected to increase only modestly, though employment is expected to grow. The capital spending index dropped seven points to 3.0, and the technology index fell to zero, suggesting that capital spending plans and technology spending plans remained weak.
Further Reading: Surviving an Uncertain Economy with Outsourced Prospecting
